Giving-Absence
0x436114e9d81d7833e7add13460f625f80c9cee70
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
52
Open notional
$231.42
Total PnL
$-45.89
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
7 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.15
$0.36
- NO
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?
7 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.12
$0.42
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
7 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$6.88
$0.41
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
7 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.80
$0.22
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
7 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.57
$0.22
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
7 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.41
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 3?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$5.35
$0.37
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 3?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$5.34
$0.32
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 4?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$5.34
$0.31
- NO
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 95m?
5 shares @ 93.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$5.33
$0.36
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$5.35Jul 3, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 4?$5.00Jul 3, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYAustralia vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5$4.97Jul 3, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$5.00Jul 3, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$4.98Jul 3, 16:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 3?$5.20Jul 3, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 3?$5.29Jul 3, 16:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 3?$5.32Jul 3, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: United States 0 - 0 Belgium?$5.00Jul 3, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B?$4.99Jul 3, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?$5.01Jul 3, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 3?$5.00Jul 3, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on July 6?$5.00Jul 3, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 3?$4.99Jul 3, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 3?$3.46Jul 3, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 4?$4.99Jul 3, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?$4.97Jul 3, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 3?$4.98Jul 3, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 3?$1.54Jul 3, 08:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 2?$5.29Jul 3, 08:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $4.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 18:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 18:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.