Agreeable-Military
0x43a9bb2f23054e75914a0aec637ad2bfd4fefaeb
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$1.0K
Total PnL
$87.95
Realised
$55.16
Win rate
91%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
760 shares @ 87.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$695.55
$34.21
- NO
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?
48 shares @ 90.2¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$44.80
$1.71
- NO
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch?
30 shares @ 98.2¢·now 96.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$28.88
$-0.58
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
30 shares @ 97.8¢·now 69.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$20.76
$-8.58
- NO
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET?
18 shares @ 96.4¢·now 95.2¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$17.09
$-0.22
- NO
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?
15 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.94
$0.16
- NO
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
20 shares @ 79.8¢·now 53.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.63
$-5.26
- NO
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
7 shares @ 94.2¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.54
$0.24
- NO
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026
5 shares @ 92.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.00
$0.38
- NO
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?
5 shares @ 96.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.00
$0.18
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
54 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.