Questionable-Flame
0x43b9fb91a92b1f9c5aa6ea779f418b4e768d5db9
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
150
Open notional
$31.2K
Total PnL
$944.67
Realised
$2.9K
Win rate
46%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 150- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
6742 shares @ 89.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.2K
$235.96
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
2289 shares @ 87.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$2.3K
$275.89
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
3106 shares @ 59.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$339.09
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
2112 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$2.1K
$212.27
- NO
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
6013 shares @ 16.9¢·now 29.4¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.8K
$749.45
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
1258 shares @ 96.8¢·now 98.5¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$1.2K
$20.46
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
1694 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.2K
$-8.46
- YES
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
3841 shares @ 16.3¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$1.1K
$505.15
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
1165 shares @ 84.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.1K
$132.88
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
8979 shares @ 37.3¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$852.97
$-2.5K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$5.48Aug 21, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$4.40Aug 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$2.88Aug 21, 05:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$26.11Aug 21, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$8.10Aug 21, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$9.00Aug 21, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?$0.04Aug 21, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?$7.46Aug 21, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?$7.80Aug 21, 04:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?$35.46Aug 21, 04:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?$4.58Aug 21, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$5.13Aug 21, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$6.60Aug 21, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$9.51Aug 21, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$4.71Aug 21, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 12 hours?$6.48Aug 21, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$23.50Aug 21, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$140.53Aug 21, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$140.53Aug 21, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$140.53Aug 21, 04:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
54 closed markets, 46% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $90.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 20:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 05:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.