Mature-Fly
0x43ca1f1d6ee7aabae77904ac6bd49645eefcd04c
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$375.86
Total PnL
$-350.42
Realised
$207.20
Win rate
20%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1210 shares @ 43.8¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$344.84
$-184.73
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
95 shares @ 21.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.67
$-3.33
- NO
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
21 shares @ 47.4¢·now 45.5¢·exp Oct 3, 2026$9.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
169 shares @ 5.9¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.13
$-5.87
- YES
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?
82 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.61
$-9.39
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
5375 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-69.98
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?
4000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?
3333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?
1704 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?
1131 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-88.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?$10.47Aug 3, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July?$10.48Aug 3, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?$10.21Aug 3, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$20.00Aug 3, 04:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US strike 13 countries in 2026?$2.60Jul 18, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$13.93Jul 18, 23:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.80Jul 18, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$52.11Jul 6, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$52.10Jul 6, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$10.29Jul 5, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$30.40Jul 5, 17:34 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.01Jul 2, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$8.34Jul 1, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$24.96Jul 1, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$7.28Jul 1, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$54.50Jul 1, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$0.50Jul 1, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$2.22Jul 1, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$6.07Jul 1, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$6.26Jul 1, 19:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $23.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 03:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 04:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.