0x43e81f5332f52b1210b19a2e16c7ca5901b8af56
0x43e81f5332f52b1210b19a2e16c7ca5901b8af56
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$508.80
Total PnL
$68.94
Realised
$6.18
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
92 shares @ 54.6¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$70.06
$20.06
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
71 shares @ 69.2¢·now 92.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$65.97
$16.85
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?
140 shares @ 59.0¢·now 46.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$64.96
$-17.64
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
49 shares @ 91.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$48.56
$3.99
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
77 shares @ 25.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$37.93
$18.77
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 88.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.99
$0.99
- NO
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
26 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$25.63
$15.63
- NO
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
20 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$20.12
$0.12
- NO
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
11 shares @ 95.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.49
$0.49
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.30
$1.30
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$6.10Jul 20, 14:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 9, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 26, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.