Mushy-Healthcare
0x45012002338167796f31813de0ddc11712abce82
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.18
Realised
$-4.75
Win rate
21%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on March 9?
200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
40 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
26 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.49
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5PM ET
26 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
21 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.27
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
21 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
16 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.32
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
16 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
11 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.43Apr 5, 20:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?$3.21Apr 5, 20:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?$4.55Apr 5, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?$8.00Apr 3, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$7.66Apr 3, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$2.02Apr 3, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$1.06Apr 3, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$1.21Apr 3, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$2.74Apr 3, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?$0.98Apr 3, 03:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 4?$8.08Apr 3, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 4?$8.01Apr 2, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 4?$5.33Apr 2, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 4?$5.31Apr 2, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$5.00Apr 2, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$0.11Apr 2, 03:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?$4.88Apr 2, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$4.67Apr 2, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$0.38Apr 2, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$5.00Mar 31, 02:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 11:26 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 5, 20:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.