Occasional-Tailspin
0x4519d3506f1642b00e18094bf99a63de5ebff669
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$11.86
Total PnL
$-1.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.76
$0.76
- YES
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.25
$0.25
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
2 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$1.89
$0.93
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 15.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.61
$-2.39
- YES
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
3 shares @ 38.0¢·now 6.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.16
$-0.84
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$0.00Apr 13, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$0.00Apr 13, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 160m and 170m?$0.00Apr 13, 16:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?$0.00Apr 13, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.00Apr 1, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.00Apr 1, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$3.00Apr 1, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$2.00Apr 1, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Capital of the World" in March?$0.00Apr 1, 20:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$0.00Apr 1, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$0.00Apr 1, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$0.00Apr 1, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?$0.00Apr 1, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$2.54Apr 1, 20:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$2.03Apr 1, 19:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$3.04Apr 1, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.36Mar 30, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.00Mar 30, 09:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $1.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 12:30 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 13, 16:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.