Hideous-Register
0x458c5bfd9bff538f98216a67b156832e7486c504
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
153
Open notional
$6.9K
Total PnL
$7.73
Realised
$186.62
Win rate
77%
128 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 153- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 97.9¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.31
$-2.50
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
200 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$185.00
$-1.00
- NO
New pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 94.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.02
$-5.00
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 92.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$181.00
$-4.16
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
200 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$175.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
200 shares @ 87.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$173.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
198 shares @ 90.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$167.14
$-10.88
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
200 shares @ 96.8¢·now 77.3¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$154.51
$-39.10
- NO
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 92.5¢·now 95.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.85
$3.35
- NO
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
99 shares @ 92.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$89.33
$-2.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$12.87Jul 28, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$49.50Jul 28, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain?$49.35Jul 28, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$12.86Jul 28, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026?$31.26Jul 28, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$48.00Jul 28, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$49.48Jul 28, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$49.55Jul 28, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31?$48.50Jul 28, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?$0.15Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$19.00Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?$141.00Jul 28, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$7.00Jul 28, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?$47.90Jul 28, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship?$48.00Jul 28, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's US Open?$49.50Jul 28, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$7.35Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$49.01Jul 28, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$49.10Jul 28, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$48.00Jul 28, 13:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
77% win rate over 128 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
128 closed markets, 77% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $42.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 23:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 128 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.