Will Leon Edwards become UFC champion in 2026?
Probability
34¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+31.4pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$44.76
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 31pp over 24h
Now 34¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 60.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.4h
- 19:38SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+32.3pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.
Biggest hourly move: +32.1pp at 02:00 (to 34¢).
Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +31.8pp → 34¢
- 17:00 · +31.9pp → 34¢
- 15:00 · +31.4pp → 34¢
- 14:00 · +31.1pp → 33¢
- 12:00 · +31.5pp → 34¢
- 11:00 · +31.6pp → 34¢
- 09:00 · +30.8pp → 33¢
- 08:00 · +30.6pp → 33¢
- 06:00 · +31.3pp → 33¢
- 05:00 · +31.6pp → 34¢
- 03:00 · +31.9pp → 34¢
- 02:00 · +32.1pp → 34¢
- 00:00 · +31.4pp → 34¢
- 23:00 · +31.7pp → 34¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -23.0pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -28.4pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -22.6pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -27.6pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -14.7pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -24.6pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -29.9pp → 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumufc.com
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (60.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.