Lost-Macadamia
0x45b39e1f71e47fd4afe4b988ffad690b644735bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$266.4K
Total PnL
$41.2K
Realised
$26.8K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
203897 shares @ 79.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$192.7K
$30.5K
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
76588 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.0K
$1.8K
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
404 shares @ 87.1¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$386.80
$34.77
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
235 shares @ 85.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$229.13
$29.38
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
969 shares @ 34.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$111.45
$-218.28
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
18000 shares @ 97.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-17.6K
- YES
Will Trump say "China" during the State of the Union address?
165 shares @ 98.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-162.15
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?
50 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-25.50
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
31 shares @ 93.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-28.84
Recent activity
- YIELD$6.50Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$6.50Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$6.49Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$6.49Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$6.49Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$6.48Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$6.48Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$6.48Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$6.47Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$6.48Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$6.48Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$6.49Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$6.49Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$6.49Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$6.48Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$6.48Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$6.46Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$6.47Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$6.45Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$6.44Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $31.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.