Flimsy-Cabbage
0x460d24da6dac6039317f9551da2fbfd400536232
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$464.46
Total PnL
$-322.24
Realised
$4.03
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
423 shares @ 54.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$255.91
$27.49
- NO
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
142 shares @ 74.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$140.79
$35.71
- YES
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
170 shares @ 85.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$40.80
$-103.70
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
22 shares @ 70.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.87
$-2.53
- NO
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
7 shares @ 94.9¢·now 67.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.71
$-1.93
- YES
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
4 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.00
$0.24
- YES
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.85
$0.54
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.52
$-0.28
- YES
Will Tempo launch a token by March 31, 2026?
265 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-57.77
- NO
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
251 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-70.28
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$0.96May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Toronto Raptors?$1.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMGPT ads by March 31?$5.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?$9.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Weapons be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$10.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$11.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike 1 country in 2026?$13.25May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?$20.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$23.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dwayne Johnson be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$28.84May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$30.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill GL/PvdA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?$34.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?$39.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?$61.67May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$79.32May 22, 08:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$263.00May 22, 08:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Apr 1, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 31, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Mar 30, 00:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 00:24 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 08:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.