Spotted-Lounge
0x4656e8343107c975f8ae74b45c8308bf868241d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$126.22
Total PnL
$-27.23
Realised
$-14.47
Win rate
48%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?
15 shares @ 96.3¢·now 96.4¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.47
$0.02
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
15 shares @ 94.1¢·now 94.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.14
$0.01
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?
15 shares @ 94.3¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.11
$-0.04
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
15 shares @ 73.6¢·now 73.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$11.08
$0.04
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
15 shares @ 66.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.97
$-0.01
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of July 20 2026?
10 shares @ 93.6¢·now 90.8¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$8.99
$-0.28
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
15 shares @ 63.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$8.92
$-0.53
- NO
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
9 shares @ 94.0¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.73
$-0.11
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
15 shares @ 68.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$7.72
$-2.48
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?
5 shares @ 93.9¢·now 88.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$4.45
$-0.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$0.84Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$7.46Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?$2.69Jul 24, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$11.03Jul 24, 00:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$14.10Jul 24, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$7.94Jul 24, 00:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$4.20Jul 24, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?$5.10Jul 24, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$1.50Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$13.44Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$1.18Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$1.62Jul 23, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?$7.78Jul 23, 23:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$5.82Jul 23, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$1.43Jul 23, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$5.41Jul 23, 23:53 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?$4.09Jul 23, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$11.85Jul 23, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$11.40Jul 23, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$4.39Jul 23, 23:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 22:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.