Misty-Uncle
0x4662b015defa79c9fc251a4cc7917ea0a9039fc6
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$134.13
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
0%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on August 12?
134 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$134.13
$0.13
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
3145 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-6.29
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19?
2818 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-20.26
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?
2279 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.11
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9?
1250 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?
1170 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.34
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 15?
807 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-205.86
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24?
770 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-196.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
751 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-193.95
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 12?
729 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-185.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on August 12?$134.01Aug 11, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$133.15Aug 11, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$133.00Jul 10, 08:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $50 in June?$133.13Jul 10, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $50 in June?$133.01Jun 30, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31?$12.61Jun 30, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Heritage win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$12.91Jun 30, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMFoggia: Elizara Yaneva vs Lisa Pigato$13.87Jun 30, 11:42 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$94.36Jun 30, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$94.27Jun 1, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYFoggia: Elizara Yaneva vs Lisa Pigato$8.56Jun 1, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C or below on May 30?$10.81Jun 1, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$92.02Jun 1, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$91.93May 31, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group D$12.05May 31, 06:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$79.86May 31, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$79.56May 30, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?$78.90May 30, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?$79.01May 30, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: ENCE vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier Group D$5.39May 30, 05:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $87.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 07:04 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 07:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.