Superior-Haversack
0x46ee2dcff4543e808d5ef1030348bec4ea84eb1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-435.84
Realised
$113.74
Win rate
61%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
950 shares @ 51.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$527.53
$38.35
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3000 shares @ 16.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$390.00
$-90.00
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
900 shares @ 41.7¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$373.50
$-1.80
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2400 shares @ 6.4¢·now 13.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$315.58
$162.82
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
12000 shares @ 1.8¢·now 2.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$264.00
$48.00
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
1504 shares @ 27.9¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$233.05
$-187.17
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
1100 shares @ 33.9¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$231.00
$-142.20
- NO
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
250 shares @ 55.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$171.26
$33.65
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
9040 shares @ 1.8¢·now 1.8¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$158.19
$-3.41
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1500 shares @ 3.3¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$138.75
$89.25
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.20Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$60.00Jul 28, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$32.20Jul 28, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$17.12Jul 28, 06:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?$0.03Jul 27, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?$0.01Jul 27, 11:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?$16.60Jul 26, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?$1.75Jul 26, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?$17.64Jul 26, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$41.00Jul 26, 16:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?$0.05Jul 26, 10:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series?$4.20Jul 25, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$28.00Jul 25, 20:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?$0.01Jul 25, 05:45 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.15Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.20Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$5.75Jul 24, 20:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $15.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 15:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.