0x477dd7a68bc4c6e5d13564a0c91fe9ea2db74f06
0x477dd7a68bc4c6e5d13564a0c91fe9ea2db74f06
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$108.16
Total PnL
$5.82
Realised
$0.97
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
31 shares @ 68.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.84
$4.84
- YES
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
27 shares @ 57.1¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$23.71
$8.41
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
11 shares @ 91.5¢·now 97.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.68
$0.68
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat?
7 shares @ 82.3¢·now 85.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.21
$0.20
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
6 shares @ 95.4¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$4.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
3 shares @ 70.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.79
$0.79
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 75.1¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.33
$0.33
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 90.3¢·now 95.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.11
$0.11
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?
3 shares @ 70.5¢·now 72.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.06
$0.06
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2 shares @ 91.4¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.05
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 4, 03:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?$1.10Jun 4, 00:57 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$62.23Jun 4, 00:57 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$0.00Jun 2, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?$5.38Jun 2, 02:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.02Jun 1, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$3.70Jun 1, 14:27 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$48.37Jun 1, 14:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$1.69Jun 1, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.03Jun 1, 12:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.03Jun 1, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$1.03Jun 1, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.03Jun 1, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.03Jun 1, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.03Jun 1, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.02Jun 1, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.02Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$25.28Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.02Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.02Jun 1, 12:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 08:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 03:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".