Carefree-Orchard
0x4796926d8d05369bbdb378b8dfc27d7b51d4e380
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$5.1K
Total PnL
$-10.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
3000 shares @ 89.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$-45.00
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
1000 shares @ 96.3¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$979.50
$16.50
- NO
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
700 shares @ 90.2¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$691.97
$60.62
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2229 shares @ 13.7¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$255.17
$-51.23
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?
250 shares @ 88.9¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$221.15
$-0.95
- YES
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
203 shares @ 71.4¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$146.91
$2.23
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
700 shares @ 15.3¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$116.55
$9.45
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?
46 shares @ 96.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$43.41
$-0.92
- YES
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
41 shares @ 3.4¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.68
$-0.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?$17.31May 17, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?$27.11May 17, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?$196.56May 17, 08:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?$26.53May 16, 14:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 9, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?$108.28May 8, 03:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 8, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?$34.85May 7, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?$33.80May 7, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7?$38.13May 7, 07:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 6, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $471.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 08:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".