Hilarious-Fishery
0x47ae6d13566c3418c4795c98ced1f197575eee94
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$17.0K
Total PnL
$-31.9K
Realised
$-778.34
Win rate
86%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
4943 shares @ 76.2¢·now 71.2¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.5K
$-247.49
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?
2705 shares @ 85.8¢·now 91.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.5K
$164.90
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
3810 shares @ 61.3¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.3K
$-29.25
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
2900 shares @ 74.7¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$53.18
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
1700 shares @ 81.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.6K
$183.50
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
1600 shares @ 76.9¢·now 75.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.2K
$-23.36
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?
1181 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$1.2K
$20.88
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
671 shares @ 95.9¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$644.20
$0.34
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?
445 shares @ 83.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$443.44
$74.09
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
400 shares @ 88.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$370.00
$16.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$2.45Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$141.13Jul 28, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$92.01Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$12.26Jul 28, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$57.22Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$289.73Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$50.40Jul 28, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?$643.86Jul 28, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.92Jul 28, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$158.96Jul 28, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.2KJul 28, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$239.93Jul 28, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$43.08Jul 28, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$42.87Jul 28, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$39.80Jul 28, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$117.91Jul 28, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$748.85Jul 28, 02:25 UTC
- REWARD$1.38Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$420.40Jul 27, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$101.15Jul 27, 23:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $263.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 08:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.