Gargantuan-Bridge
0x47bf27d762a1ed5a8abc5e08ffba994d0dc9c6bb
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$2.2K
Total PnL
$-19.77
Realised
$-14.15
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
740 shares @ 88.5¢·now 89.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$661.15
$6.40
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
515 shares @ 85.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$481.45
$42.05
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
400 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$385.80
$13.80
- NO
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
100 shares @ 86.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$85.49
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
90 shares @ 93.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.09
$0.61
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
75 shares @ 92.8¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.64
$3.07
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
56 shares @ 92.5¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$51.72
$0.30
- NO
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
50 shares @ 96.4¢·now 99.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$49.50
$1.30
- NO
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
50 shares @ 92.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.25
$0.18
- NO
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?
40 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$39.89
$0.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on July 2?$6.79Jul 1, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 3?$6.52Jul 1, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 3?$8.97Jul 1, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2?$2.56Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 2?$6.51Jul 1, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 2?$6.53Jul 1, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 2?$4.13Jul 1, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 2?$5.19Jul 1, 20:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 2?$5.26Jul 1, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 2?$1.96Jul 1, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 2?$18.67Jul 1, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on July 2?$18.27Jul 1, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 2?$0.84Jul 1, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on July 2?$13.32Jul 1, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 2?$6.75Jul 1, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on July 2?$19.24Jul 1, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 2?$0.74Jul 1, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 2?$1.98Jul 1, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 2?$1.03Jul 1, 19:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$20.00Jul 1, 10:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $23.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 02:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 21:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.