Optimistic-Thorn
0x487509918384ed191d09a3e727e2ea2f312ec06b
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$8.18
Total PnL
$-3.82
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
3 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$3.23
$2.23
- YES
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- NO
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Monday news conference?
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$1.35
$0.35
- YES
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in April?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.92
$-0.08
- NO
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.11
$-1.89
- YES
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
4 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$0.00Apr 8, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$5.00Apr 8, 15:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.00Apr 8, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 10:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.90Apr 8, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 10:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$0.00Apr 8, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$0.00Apr 8, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.00Apr 8, 10:04 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$0.00Apr 8, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.00Apr 8, 09:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?$1.00Apr 8, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?$1.00Apr 7, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Ballroom" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$0.00Apr 7, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Pilot" or "Crew" or "Staff" 5+ times during Monday news conference?$1.12Apr 7, 06:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation?$0.00Apr 7, 06:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$2.13Apr 7, 06:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $1.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 21:11 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 15:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.