Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Probability
66¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$1.7K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5995.4h
- 04:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5995h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 04:37PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 66¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 63¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 63¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 63¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 63¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 63¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 63¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 65¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 64¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 65¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 66¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 68¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 61¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 60¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 60¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 60¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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