Original-Anything-Petition
0x489a6942253203fd0c5e786c230419a02840fff2
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$739.16
Total PnL
$-79.23
Realised
$75.02
Win rate
73%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Ludvig Åberg win the 2026 TOUR Championship?
425 shares @ 8.5¢·now 5.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$22.31
$-13.75
- NO
Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?
30 shares @ 32.2¢·now 52.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.75
$6.09
- YES
Will Leavitt say "Alien" during the next White House Press Briefing?
30 shares @ 38.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$15.15
$3.75
- NO
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?
30 shares @ 26.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.55
$6.75
- YES
Will New Jersey 5s win the Major League Pickleball End of Season Championship?
27 shares @ 26.4¢·now 51.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$13.78
$6.66
- NO
Will Jon Bon Jovi attend the US Open Finals?
30 shares @ 39.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$13.50
$1.80
- YES
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026?
105 shares @ 13.8¢·now 12.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.86
$-1.59
- NO
Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by September 7, 2026?
30 shares @ 28.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$12.75
$4.35
- NO
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?
28 shares @ 12.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$12.19
$8.79
- YES
Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2028?
50 shares @ 15.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.25
$3.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $525B by August 31?$0.21Aug 18, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in August?$0.12Aug 18, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLYevhen Khmara appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Defence by August 31?$16.50Aug 18, 08:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026?$1.69Aug 18, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Friday be the most viewed day of Jesse Watters Primetime for the week of August 10 - August 16?$3.30Aug 18, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ja'Marr Chase have 14.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?$8.70Aug 18, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?$3.20Aug 18, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026?$1.92Aug 18, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026?$0.95Aug 18, 05:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? $10.46Aug 18, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-12?$1.64Aug 18, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Salt Lake win on 2026-04-12?$0.62Aug 18, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYHalle Berry as Storm?$0.86Aug 18, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Chicago Fire FC 0 - 1 Vancouver Whitecaps FC?$0.29Aug 18, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump speak to Mark Carney in August?$1.72Aug 18, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joao Fonseca Win the Cincinnati Open?$1.08Aug 18, 01:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Neil Robertson Win the China Open?$0.00Aug 18, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wu Yize Win the China Open?$0.00Aug 18, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zhou Yuelong Win the China Open?$0.00Aug 18, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude go down fewer than 5 times in August?$0.00Aug 18, 01:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 12:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 09:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.