Will Theo launch a token by December 31 2026?
Probability
72¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 42.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6014.5h
- 14:32SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.6pp
to 72¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 73¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.7pp
to 73¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.1pp
to 72¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 74¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.1pp
to 73¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 74¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 72¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 71¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 72¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 74¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 72¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.1pp
to 72¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.2pp
to 74¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 74¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.6pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.9pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.1pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.9pp
to 73¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.4pp
to 71¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.2pp
to 71¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.6pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.9pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.1pp
to 72¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.4pp
to 73¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Theo, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (42.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).