Calm-Supervision
0x48afe8fbde091ff3e616901dc92ef20862c289cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
156
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$-33.6K
Realised
$-6.2K
Win rate
48%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 156- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17200 shares @ 17.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.2K
$1.3K
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
287 shares @ 54.8¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$199.10
$42.10
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
4955 shares @ 3.3¢·now 1.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$96.62
$-66.89
- YES
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
200 shares @ 25.0¢·now 11.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.70
$-26.30
- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
1 shares @ 95.4¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?
33014 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-680.65
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
25000 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-827.27
- YES
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
22995 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-626.22
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
16000 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour and 15 minutes?
14000 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-185.26
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
48% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
40 closed markets, 48% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.