Elated-Corduroy
0x492490c1403eb4aab63fbdf79ed4183c393af404
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
51
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-306.63
Win rate
23%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 51- YES
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
486 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$486.00
$92.34
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
633 shares @ 66.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$465.25
$47.47
- CENTRAL ARKANSAS BEARS
Central Arkansas Bears vs. North Alabama Lions
288 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$288.00
$69.12
- NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
153 shares @ 84.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$153.00
$24.33
- $140
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
889 shares @ 30.0¢·now 12.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$114.68
$-152.02
- YES
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
64 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.00
$26.24
- NO
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.60
$1.70
- YES
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
280 shares @ 18.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$5.99
$-44.41
- YES
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 86.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.42
$-8.47
- NO
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026?
4 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.96
$0.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?$384.20Apr 12, 01:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$434.40Apr 12, 00:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?$7.35Apr 11, 18:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$90.30Apr 11, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$445.26Apr 10, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$135.45Apr 10, 13:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$235.72Apr 9, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$278.32Apr 9, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$65.89Apr 9, 11:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$0.88Apr 9, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$629.88Apr 7, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$393.66Apr 7, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?$457.55Apr 7, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$84.98Apr 7, 12:48 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?$0.46Apr 7, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMBased FDV above $2B one day after launch?$50.00Apr 7, 04:28 UTC
- REDEEMUNCW Seahawks vs. Charleston Cougars$112.00Apr 7, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$206.72Mar 31, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AD Pasto win on 2026-04-11?$425.25Mar 31, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AD Pasto win on 2026-04-11?$71.82Mar 31, 02:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $239.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 06:37 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 12, 01:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.