Live-Hacienda
0x492d4e7e97b93865b3dbf0f5d36b0cf8b8779487
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-359.32
Realised
$406.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
2099 shares @ 59.9¢·now 43.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$913.00
$-344.17
- NO
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?
410 shares @ 86.1¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$398.13
$45.33
- YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?
300 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$299.85
$26.85
- YES
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?
300 shares @ 88.3¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$298.20
$33.20
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
700 shares @ 58.9¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$101.50
$-310.99
- NO
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?
100 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$95.05
$2.05
- YES
Will Haiti be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$93.00
$3.00
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
122 shares @ 81.9¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$90.99
$-9.01
- YES
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
100 shares @ 90.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$70.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 60.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$65.50
$5.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$100.00Jun 14, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$4.50Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$39.60Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$9.70Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$18.00Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$4.50Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$4.50Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$1.10Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET$8.10Jun 14, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$19.16Jun 14, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$5.07Jun 14, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$10.16Jun 14, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$72.50Jun 14, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$50.32Jun 14, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$10.09Jun 14, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$5.06Jun 14, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$23.90Jun 14, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$5.07Jun 14, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$15.16Jun 14, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.00Jun 14, 17:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $27.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 21:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 18:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.