Tough-Aim
0x492ff617243570039306703c03712c7ceceabc51
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
123
Open notional
$117.86
Total PnL
$-3.9K
Realised
$0.94
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
258 shares @ 38.8¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.09
$-72.91
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
94 shares @ 53.4¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.88
$-26.12
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
316 shares @ 19.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.68
$-36.32
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
62 shares @ 67.4¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
402 shares @ 11.4¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.87
$-30.03
- YES
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.02
$-6.92
- YES
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
21 shares @ 34.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.88
$-4.12
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.36
$-0.64
- YES
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 44.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.08
$-3.92
- YES
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $26.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.