Teeming-Curd
0x498461295ef248bc671dd58e5c4c3d6d7a0969d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$26.65
Total PnL
$-450.22
Realised
$126.22
Win rate
71%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 14.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.61
$13.53
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
4 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.00
$0.48
- NO
Hyperbeat FDV above $100M one day after launch?
3 shares @ 81.4¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.81
$0.37
- NO
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 89.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.00
$0.10
- NO
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 92.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.99
$0.07
- NO
Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?
1 shares @ 42.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.85
$0.43
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
5 shares @ 14.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.14
$-0.56
- YES
Will Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential run before 2027?
3 shares @ 13.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.13
$-0.26
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?
1 shares @ 22.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.10
$-0.12
- NO
Will Donald Trump say "China" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?
437 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-157.45
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win more than 62.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$0.20May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$3.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Backpack launch a token by March 31?$4.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$25.84May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMParadex FDV above $750M one day after launch?$27.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)$72.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMBonk Guy mindshare all time high by March 31?$75.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$79.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Henrique Gouveia e Melo win less than 12% of votes in the first round?$181.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?$378.00May 20, 08:42 UTC
- TRADESELLMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$1.76Apr 21, 04:57 UTC
- TRADESELLReya FDV above $300M one day after launch?$2.23Apr 21, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLReya FDV above $300M one day after launch?$3.92Apr 21, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLReya FDV above $300M one day after launch?$2.76Apr 21, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?$4.90Apr 21, 04:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Feb 10, 00:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $36.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 00:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 20, 08:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.