Great-Cough
0x4a7c5e0bd5463cd68c4d514d078de939ca321dc7
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$69.68
Total PnL
$-1.7K
Realised
$-207.44
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
106 shares @ 52.0¢·now 53.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.22
$1.22
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
77 shares @ 26.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.46
$-6.54
- NO
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026?
3148 shares @ 26.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-823.46
- YES
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?
677 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-57.77
- NO
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
399 shares @ 65.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-260.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
391 shares @ 66.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-260.00
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
113 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
63 shares @ 32.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$0.00
$-20.30
- YES
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$20.00Aug 5, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?$2.93Aug 5, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$30.00Aug 1, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$9.30Aug 1, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$10.00Aug 1, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$20.00Aug 1, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$40.00Aug 1, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$20.00Aug 1, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?$20.00Aug 1, 22:05 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.00Aug 1, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$164.44Jul 31, 21:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$55.00Jul 31, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$50.44Jul 31, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$160.18Jul 31, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$106.47Jul 31, 11:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.28Jul 31, 11:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$4.19Jul 31, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$10.16Jul 31, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$16.31Jul 31, 11:17 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$15.79Jul 31, 11:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $85.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 19:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 20:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.