Mushy-Stimulus
0x4a8562928ff018fb20af4a536f9fe05357e4c04b
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$12.35
Total PnL
$-122.73
Realised
$51.40
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
190 shares @ 11.8¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.35
$-10.15
- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
1060 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-23.30
- NO
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?
600 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?
500 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-44.00
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
334 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026?
200 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?
170 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-7.30
- YES
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
100 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$6.00Jun 20, 17:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$0.97Jun 17, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$4.03Jun 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$1.00Jun 17, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?$12.67Jun 15, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?$11.30Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?$5.86Jun 15, 00:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?$4.20Jun 14, 22:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?$1.14Jun 14, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?$2.93Jun 14, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?$2.99Jun 14, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?$6.00Jun 12, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?$5.40Jun 11, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?$4.50Jun 10, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?$0.99Jun 7, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?$1.20Jun 7, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?$1.46Jun 7, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?$0.57Jun 7, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026?$3.49Jun 6, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?$0.87Jun 6, 08:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $11.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 20:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 17:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.