Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?
Probability
86¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$2.6K
Liquidity
$7.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 24.3h
- 23:44SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 24h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 23:43PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 86¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 86¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 86¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 86¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 85¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 86¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 87¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 85¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 85¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 85¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 85¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 83¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 83¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 84¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 85¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 82¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 83¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 82¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).