0x4af2bd546e90ec973c3456b81d88ee1832f13e4e
0x4af2bd546e90ec973c3456b81d88ee1832f13e4e
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$513.33
Total PnL
$-126.45
Realised
$41.09
Win rate
70%
54 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
79 shares @ 90.6¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.99
$2.44
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
82 shares @ 79.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.48
$7.64
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 66.5¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.39
$6.18
- NO
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
67 shares @ 51.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.70
$3.37
- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
49 shares @ 25.3¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$18.87
$6.45
- NO
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?
19 shares @ 79.3¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.09
$1.69
- NO
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
18 shares @ 86.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.32
$0.49
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
18 shares @ 79.1¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.08
$1.05
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
15 shares @ 54.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$13.78
$5.77
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 84.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.28
$0.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?$2.21Jul 3, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?$1.24Jul 3, 07:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?$0.25Jul 3, 05:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?$1.28Jul 2, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$1.31Jul 2, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$0.26Jul 2, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.11Jul 2, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$2.09Jul 2, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?$0.10Jul 2, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?$1.79Jul 2, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.86Jul 2, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$2.35Jul 2, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$1.23Jul 2, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?$1.26Jul 2, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$1.69Jul 2, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.13Jul 2, 01:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?$2.62Jul 1, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?$1.61Jul 1, 22:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
80/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 54 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
54 closed markets, 70% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 08:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 09:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 54 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.