US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$553.42
Liquidity
$26.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.1h
- 14:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 16¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 17¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea. The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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