Obvious-Pit
0x4b1b87c2190176ff8072c63060cfea2e1ae862c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$3.3K
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$195.64
Win rate
89%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
685 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$634.00
$10.28
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?
870 shares @ 66.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$613.32
$39.15
- NO
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
700 shares @ 81.6¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$612.35
$40.98
- NO
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
900 shares @ 65.7¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$247.50
$-343.50
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
1242 shares @ 36.3¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$229.80
$-220.69
- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
273 shares @ 63.3¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$192.70
$19.75
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$167.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
200 shares @ 51.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$155.00
$53.00
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?
183 shares @ 80.3¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$145.69
$-1.44
- YES
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
467 shares @ 64.0¢·now 18.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$88.10
$-211.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$125.00Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$59.68Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$2.47Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$55.00Jun 12, 22:18 UTC
- REWARD$2.24Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$42.74Jun 11, 06:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.84Jun 11, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.04Jun 10, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?$39.00Jun 9, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?$19.89Jun 9, 12:52 UTC
- REWARD$1.76Jun 9, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.59Jun 8, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?$7.20Jun 7, 11:26 UTC
- REWARD$3.45Jun 7, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$3.28Jun 6, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs$1.0KJun 5, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?$102.00Jun 5, 08:28 UTC
- REWARD$1.40Jun 5, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$47.50Jun 4, 03:13 UTC
- REWARD$1.64Jun 4, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $137.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 16:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.