Obvious-Pit
0x4b1b87c2190176ff8072c63060cfea2e1ae862c1
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$2.4K
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$190.23
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
934 shares @ 81.8¢·now 69.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$653.10
$-111.51
- NO
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
900 shares @ 65.7¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$364.50
$-226.50
- NO
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
1242 shares @ 36.3¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$360.22
$-90.27
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?
493 shares @ 65.1¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$273.88
$-47.61
- NO
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
273 shares @ 63.3¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$200.90
$27.95
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
200 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$173.00
$3.00
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $22B?
183 shares @ 80.3¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$163.10
$15.97
- YES
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
1048 shares @ 22.3¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$131.03
$-102.28
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $24B?
45 shares @ 81.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$42.54
$5.88
- NO
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B?
37 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$35.00
$0.46
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$22.00Jul 28, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$5.00Jul 28, 14:08 UTC
- REWARD$5.31Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$0.11Jul 27, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$6.72Jul 27, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$5.00Jul 27, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$5.00Jul 27, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$3.00Jul 27, 02:17 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.32Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.12Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$173.02Jul 26, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$2.50Jul 26, 04:26 UTC
- REWARD$5.46Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$1.25Jul 25, 08:39 UTC
- REWARD$6.94Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$12.50Jul 24, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$3.41Jul 24, 05:29 UTC
- REWARD$12.76Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$6.75Jul 23, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$0.57Jul 23, 17:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $46.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 21:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.