0x4b3e4b181bd8e9a3698ac8e89226fd8a3deaff11
0x4b3e4b181bd8e9a3698ac8e89226fd8a3deaff11
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
58
Open notional
$112.29
Total PnL
$-96.16
Realised
$23.63
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
14 shares @ 85.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$13.73
$2.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
13 shares @ 78.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$11.49
$1.48
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.56
$0.25
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?
7 shares @ 97.1¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$6.43
$-0.02
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
9 shares @ 72.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.32
$-0.13
- YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
9 shares @ 55.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$4.89
$-0.04
- YES
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
138 shares @ 2.1¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$4.19
$1.23
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 55.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.92
$-0.04
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
40 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.83
$-0.20
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
3 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$3.10
$0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$5.05Jul 5, 12:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$1.02Jul 5, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$1.05Jul 5, 09:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?$1.06Jul 5, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$2.06Jul 5, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.12Jul 5, 09:14 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$3.73Jul 5, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$1.07Jul 4, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$1.09Jul 4, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$1.11Jul 4, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.17Jul 4, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.16Jul 4, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$1.18Jul 4, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.21Jul 4, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Argentina (-1.5)$1.25Jul 4, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?$1.23Jul 4, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: France (-1.5)$7.10Jul 4, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?$1.43Jul 4, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$1.51Jul 4, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?$1.49Jul 4, 15:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 15:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 12:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.