Lean-Optimisation
0x4bd7eefb7eb237d6bdd83979f1293c5a7a4c71a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$325.43
Total PnL
$-594.36
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
955 shares @ 49.7¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$133.68
$-340.72
- NO
Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?
80 shares @ 80.9¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$63.47
$-1.53
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
94 shares @ 53.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$46.70
$-3.30
- NO
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
234 shares @ 42.8¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$45.58
$-54.42
- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
25 shares @ 84.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.83
$2.43
- YES
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?
38 shares @ 39.3¢·now 31.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$11.82
$-3.18
- YES
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
17 shares @ 57.4¢·now 2.1¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.36
$-9.64
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
141 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
87 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Thomas Pynchon win the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature?
83 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$124.63May 17, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$102.29May 17, 02:03 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hong Kong" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 15, 16:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?$10.75May 15, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?$10.87May 15, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?$10.99May 15, 16:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $29.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".