Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$658.44
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $658 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2247.0h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.5pp at 1d ago (to 14¢).
Show 7 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -9.5pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +8.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · +8.5pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 19¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 24¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 21¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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