Light-Prompt
0x4c35e2b424c2af5345e3e5c0e3e96896d54c6f6c
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-47.22
Win rate
14%
151 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?
4001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
3230 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.19
- YES
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2654 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.65
- YES
Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026?
2490 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.49
- YES
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?
2001 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$3.60Aug 11, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$0.55Aug 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$1.75Aug 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$0.91Aug 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$6.65Aug 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$5.35Aug 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$0.54Aug 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$1.75Aug 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$12.59Aug 10, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$10.35Aug 10, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET$10.55Aug 10, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.99Aug 10, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$1.04Aug 10, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$10.55Aug 10, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$10.50Aug 10, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.36Aug 10, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.44Aug 10, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.09Aug 10, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$4.71Aug 10, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$3.15Aug 10, 20:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 151 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
151 closed markets, 14% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 15:09 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 00:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 151 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.