Light-Prompt
0x4c35e2b424c2af5345e3e5c0e3e96896d54c6f6c
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.32
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$90.42
Win rate
96%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
2654 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.33
$-1.33
- YES
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
20 shares @ 5.6¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.89
$-0.23
- YES
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.63
$-0.38
- YES
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$18.75Jun 25, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$2.81Jun 25, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$6.29Jun 25, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.09Jun 25, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$4.18Jun 25, 22:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$12.72Jun 25, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$2.08Jun 25, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$4.17Jun 25, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$4.21Jun 25, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$4.17Jun 25, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYJapan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?$9.99Jun 25, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$4.16Jun 25, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.53Jun 25, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$4.17Jun 25, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$4.17Jun 25, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$4.17Jun 25, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$21.96Jun 25, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$4.19Jun 25, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$4.16Jun 25, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$4.21Jun 25, 20:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $5.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 19:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 22:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.