Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/xi-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-may-15 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/xi-meets-with-iranian-officials-by-may-15/markdown.

GeopoliticsExpires May 15, 2026

Creator

Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?

Probability

1¢

+0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$17.9K

Liquidity

$11.6K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 15, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Iranian government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 5, 2026, 18:00May 8, 2026, 15:51

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T15-51Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 1.5× turnover
$17.9k traded against $11.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $11.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 15, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Iranian government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 152.1h
LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -18.1pp at 06:00 (to 1¢).

Show 7 hourly moves

14:00 · -4.0pp → 1¢
13:00 · -8.6pp → 1¢
11:00 · -10.3pp → 1¢
10:00 · -8.1pp → 1¢
09:00 · -8.1pp → 1¢
07:00 · -16.6pp → 1¢
06:00 · -18.1pp → 1¢

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping meets with one or more Iranian government officials by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Xi and one or more Iranian government officials are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 15:51:54 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$17.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $64.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.2¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket