Arctic-Spleen
0x4c5e4aeddaccf7436268d8feb05f9b9380a339a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$95.0K
Total PnL
$-19.05
Realised
$330.82
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
32372 shares @ 92.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$29.6K
$-379.34
- NO
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
20060 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$20.0K
$-10.01
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
13604 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$13.5K
$54.48
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?
9664 shares @ 92.6¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$9.0K
$41.83
- NO
Netanyahu out by May 31?
7243 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp May 31, 2026$7.2K
$-3.61
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
6276 shares @ 48.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.0K
$31.39
- NO
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2910 shares @ 99.1¢·now 94.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.7K
$-143.27
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
1826 shares @ 97.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.8K
$4.57
- YES
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20?
1637 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$1.6K
$31.67
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1752 shares @ 92.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.6K
$-15.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?$231.34May 21, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$4.9KMay 21, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$61.37May 21, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?$1.2KMay 21, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$8.91May 21, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$830.18May 21, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$396.00May 21, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$2.06May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$1.06May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$518.76May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$335.61May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$396.00May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$1.2KMay 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$8.91May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$307.89May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$396.00May 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$3.62May 21, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYGeneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik$556.99May 21, 20:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?$15.00May 21, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$1.00May 21, 19:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$20.0K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
May 20, 19:50 UTC → May 20, 19:45 UTC
- BUYWill Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$20.0K@100¢May 20, 19:45 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$20.0K
1 trades
30d volume
$20.0K
1 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
$20.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $780.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 17:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 20:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".