Calm-Modernist
0x4ce1ba5e0e7b35d59e0b4ffaaefba9be80288d6e
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$15.66
Total PnL
$0.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
3 shares @ 67.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.97
$0.97
- YES
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.89
$0.89
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.89
$0.89
- YES
Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$1.69
$0.69
- YES
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.30
$0.30
- YES
Will Matthew Schaefer win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy?
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.22
$0.22
- YES
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.21
$0.21
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$1.20
$0.20
- YES
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.19
$0.19
- YES
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.10
$0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$1.00Feb 11, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?$1.00Feb 5, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matthew Schaefer win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy?$1.00Jan 27, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$1.00Jan 21, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.00Jan 20, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?$1.00Dec 31, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.00Dec 24, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?$1.00Dec 17, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win UEFA Group B for 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.02Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hims say "Zava" during earnings call?$1.03Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charles Leclerc finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?$1.06Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mikey Madison rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?$1.08Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after October 2025 meeting?$1.11Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vi Lyles win the 2025 Charlotte mayoral election?$1.11Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?$1.14Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?$1.16Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? $1.33Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?$1.82Dec 9, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Dec 9, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mikey Madison rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?$1.00Nov 26, 12:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 10:11 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 07:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.