0x4d1e7f7ab98bee32b09b1cdf5c5159e73922e714
0x4d1e7f7ab98bee32b09b1cdf5c5159e73922e714
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$64.04
Total PnL
$-42.94
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Marine Tondelier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
11 shares @ 96.9¢·now 99.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$11.03
$0.24
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
11 shares @ 92.6¢·now 94.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$10.56
$0.20
- YES
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
19 shares @ 70.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$10.36
$-2.95
- NO
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
17 shares @ 69.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.33
$-2.27
- NO
Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
8 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$8.08
$0.05
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
10 shares @ 67.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.31
$-1.28
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
6 shares @ 73.9¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.73
$-0.61
- YES
Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?
10 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.66
$-0.05
- YES
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.49
$-0.11
- YES
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
11 shares @ 11.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$1.49
$0.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?$1.65Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?$2.79Jul 13, 23:15 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$9.19Jul 12, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$9.99Jul 12, 02:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win the World Cup?$10.18Jul 12, 02:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$11.77Jul 12, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$7.04Jul 12, 00:27 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$0.01Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the World Cup?$9.68Jul 11, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$10.39Jul 10, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$8.80Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$11.35Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
- REDEEMFrance vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$9.04Jul 9, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Morocco: Team to Advance$7.08Jul 9, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Graham Platner drop out by July 7?$1.73Jul 7, 21:03 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$7.42Jul 7, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jordan Bardella be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?$3.22Jul 7, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$3.43Jul 7, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$6.62Jul 7, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance$6.41Jul 7, 15:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $6.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 01:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.