GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 10:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 43¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (20.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).