Cloudy-Orchard
0x4e39fdfc230f9312d93db03ab48c10fccf2d8cbf
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$363.17
Total PnL
$-364.57
Realised
$336.23
Win rate
98%
131 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
99999 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$50.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Brooklyn Nets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
25030 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$37.55
$12.52
- YES
Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?
21276 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$31.91
$10.64
- YES
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
15814 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$23.72
$7.91
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
11215 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$16.82
$5.61
- YES
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
11144 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.72
$5.57
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in August?
15688 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$7.84
$-9.29
- YES
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4901 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$7.35
$-0.48
- YES
Will Shas win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
4700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$7.05
$0.85
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in August?
3090 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.2¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$6.18
$1.72
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?$0.00Aug 4, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?$0.00Aug 4, 06:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?$0.00Aug 4, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.02Aug 4, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?$0.01Aug 4, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?$0.00Aug 4, 05:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?$0.00Aug 4, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?$0.00Aug 4, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.03Aug 4, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?$0.90Aug 4, 05:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in August?$0.04Aug 4, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.00Aug 4, 04:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be at least 2.5%?$0.01Aug 4, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of USR?$0.00Aug 4, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR?$0.00Aug 4, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.00Aug 4, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.03Aug 4, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.03Aug 4, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.03Aug 4, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.03Aug 4, 04:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
98% win rate over 131 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
131 closed markets, 98% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 02:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 06:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 131 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.