Cloudy-Orchard
0x4e39fdfc230f9312d93db03ab48c10fccf2d8cbf
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
155
Open notional
$347.91
Total PnL
$531.83
Realised
$507.84
Win rate
99%
86 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 155- YES
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
17398 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.10
$8.70
- YES
Will Solana dip to $10 in June?
12979 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$19.47
$6.49
- YES
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
11974 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.96
$5.99
- YES
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
11593 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$17.39
$5.25
- YES
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
11424 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.14
$5.71
- YES
Will Solana reach $150 in June?
11002 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$16.50
$5.50
- YES
Will Mike Kennealy win the 2026 Massachusetts Governor Republican primary election?
878 shares @ 0.2¢·now 1.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$15.81
$14.05
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?
9557 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$14.34
$4.78
- YES
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
9266 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.90
$4.63
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?
7955 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$11.93
$3.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?$0.02Jun 19, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?$0.00Jun 19, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?$0.02Jun 19, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $160 in June?$0.18Jun 19, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June?$0.02Jun 19, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June?$0.01Jun 19, 09:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?$0.02Jun 19, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?$0.00Jun 19, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?$0.10Jun 19, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?$0.03Jun 19, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in China?$0.01Jun 19, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $150 in June?$0.13Jun 19, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana reach $160 in June?$0.05Jun 19, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?$0.20Jun 19, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?$0.00Jun 19, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $150 in June?$0.05Jun 19, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $150 in June?$0.03Jun 19, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $10 in June?$0.02Jun 19, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?$0.01Jun 19, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.04Jun 19, 09:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
99% win rate over 86 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
86 closed markets, 99% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 08:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 09:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 86 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.