GeopoliticsExpires Aug 31, 2026
Creator

Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?

Probability

4¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-3.4pp

24h Vol

$1.0K

Liquidity

$31.8K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

47% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Confidence below paper gate

Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    47% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
38
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$3k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$32k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelpromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
4¢
Jun 19, 2026, 21:00 UTCJun 26, 2026, 15:37 UTC
updated 15:37:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-26T15-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 3.4pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Aug 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1568.4h

    LOW
  • 15:37Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 3.4pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-3.4pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: +3.1pp at Jun 25, 15:00 UTC (to 7¢).

Show 5 hourly moves
  • 20:00 · +3.1pp → 7¢
  • 19:00 · +3.1pp → 7¢
  • 17:00 · +3.1pp → 7¢
  • Jun 25, 15:00 UTC · +3.1pp → 7¢
  • Jun 25, 14:00 UTC · +3.1pp → 7¢
updated 15:37:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 15:37:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the handshake to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, there must be video or photographic evidence. The resolution source for this market will be photographic or digital evidence verified by a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Geopolitics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

putin

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "putin" — matched the Geopolitics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?"?

As of Fri, 26 Jun 2026 15:37:11 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 31, 2026 (2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$1.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $31.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $31.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

17 wallets
Open on Polymarket