Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Probability
3¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+3.1pp
24h Vol
$7.0K
Liquidity
$70.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NBA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 3¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $7.0k traded against $70.8k of visible liquidity (0.10× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 3.1pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NBA dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Official NBA data
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 1, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 9337.6h
- 22:25SignalMEDIUM
Momentum up
Probability moved up 3.1pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Price movement
+3.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: +6.6pp at 08:00 (to 7¢).
Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
- 20:00 · +3.4pp → 4¢
- 17:00 · +4.8pp → 5¢
- 15:00 · +6.0pp → 6¢
- 14:00 · +5.8pp → 6¢
- 12:00 · +6.2pp → 6¢
- 10:00 · +6.3pp → 7¢
- 09:00 · +6.6pp → 7¢
- 08:00 · +6.6pp → 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is determined as the champion of the NBA for the 2026-27 season. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to be named as the champion of NBA for the 2026-27 season per the rules of NBA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NBA: however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nba Reason
NBA — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?"?
As of Sat, 06 Jun 2026 22:25:53 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.1pp in the last 24 hours, +1.5pp in the last hour, and +3.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 1, 2027 (2027-07-01T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$7.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $38.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $70.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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