0x4e84ce1599d3d0272932a729c2a3310b734bef69
0x4e84ce1599d3d0272932a729c2a3310b734bef69
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
86
Open notional
$8.6K
Total PnL
$-228.78
Realised
$-653.91
Win rate
54%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
985 shares @ 49.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$974.33
$490.23
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?
753 shares @ 52.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$753.49
$356.41
- NO
Iran leadership change by May 31?
751 shares @ 74.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$750.71
$191.16
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
353 shares @ 91.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$352.76
$29.01
- YES
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?
327 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$327.32
$39.32
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
314 shares @ 93.2¢·now 97.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$304.29
$11.89
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
466 shares @ 33.8¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$293.58
$136.27
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
259 shares @ 62.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$259.13
$96.02
- NO
Netanyahu out by March 31?
239 shares @ 92.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$238.80
$18.39
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
350 shares @ 42.6¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$222.25
$72.97
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.05Jun 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 12, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$20.01Jun 11, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30?$703.79Jun 11, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$118.32Jun 11, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$59.15Jun 11, 12:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 11, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$40.18Jun 10, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$40.14Jun 10, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$570.58Jun 10, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$148.33Jun 10, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$0.19Jun 10, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$1.31Jun 10, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$1.91Jun 10, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$0.57Jun 10, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$15.77Jun 10, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$0.16Jun 10, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$0.09Jun 10, 03:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$26.81Jun 9, 14:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $54.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 16:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.