Outlying-Fellow
0x4f2c6b002d6032b8c2be6610c8418d981300a1ce
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$345.26
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$20.92
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
234 shares @ 70.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$234.24
$68.19
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
112 shares @ 89.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$111.01
$11.01
- YES
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
858 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?
406 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
289 shares @ 69.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
263 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
247 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Will Israel strike 3 countries in March 2026?
229 shares @ 43.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the March decision?
149 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
109 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$111.65May 16, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$24.77May 16, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$0.23May 16, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$36.54May 16, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$20.80May 16, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$20.28May 16, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$10.28May 16, 22:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$20.21May 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$19.33May 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$10.38May 16, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$51.05May 16, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$10.47May 16, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$10.47May 16, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$102.49May 16, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$97.83May 16, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$36.97Apr 13, 17:11 UTC
- REDEEMHouthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?$61.59Apr 13, 17:10 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by March 31?$212.31Apr 13, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?$90.00Apr 13, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by June 30?$100.00Mar 28, 21:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $74.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 3, 21:55 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 22:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.