Quirky-Ejector
0x4f3d34b4515c2a22a9d8357f9e9c795faf9a9ef2
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$38.50
Total PnL
$-487.30
Realised
$128.91
Win rate
27%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
94 shares @ 53.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.96
$-17.86
- NO
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
4 shares @ 52.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.54
$1.46
- YES
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.00
$0.90
- NO
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
672 shares @ 37.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-252.26
- YES
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?
406 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-138.04
- NO
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?
188 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-83.20
- YES
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
159 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-52.47
- NO
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?
87 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-17.40
- NO
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?
71 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-24.85
- NO
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?
64 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-19.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?$3.00Jun 4, 10:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$97.00Jun 4, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?$20.01Apr 21, 04:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?$23.40Feb 9, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$3.60Feb 8, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$4.40Feb 8, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$15.80Feb 8, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$6.80Feb 8, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$11.00Feb 8, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$16.70Feb 8, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$29.50Feb 8, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLRipple Labs IPO before 2027?$1.80Feb 8, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Philadelphia Eagles be eliminated in the Divisional Round?$4.00Jan 12, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?$188.00Jan 11, 19:46 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$5.58Jan 11, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLCerebras IPO before 2027?$146.12Jan 11, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLCerebras IPO before 2027?$207.20Jan 11, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$25.80Jan 11, 16:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?$134.68Jan 11, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Rams be eliminated in the Divisional Round?$48.02Jan 11, 15:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $97.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 03:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 10:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.