Careful-Facet
0x4f4208b90384fdb12d5b633396ae9e05a18ae11c
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
49
Open notional
$14.65
Total PnL
$-34.13
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.94
$1.94
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.44
$1.44
- NO
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.27
$1.27
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.24
$0.24
- NO
Unit FDV above $400M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.77
$-0.23
- YES
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$0.74
$-0.26
- YES
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.72
$-0.28
- NO
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2026$0.64
$-0.36
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 22 above $370?$12.50Jun 26, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. New York Mets$1.01Jun 25, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 25?$1.03Jun 25, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 22 above $370?$1.00Jun 25, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?$0.86Jun 9, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSaudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5$1.03Jun 9, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYModena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko$1.01Jun 9, 18:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?$1.25Jun 9, 11:28 UTC
- REDEEMBoston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays$2.00Jun 9, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?$6.25Jun 8, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?$1.00Jun 8, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5)$1.02Jun 8, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIlkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton$0.75Jun 8, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIlkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton$0.25Jun 8, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYModena: Martina Trevisan vs Jennifer Ruggeri$1.02Jun 8, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 8?$1.03Jun 8, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYLyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo$1.03Jun 8, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays$1.01Jun 8, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYLibema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen$1.02Jun 8, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw?$1.01Jun 8, 15:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $0.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 13:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 20:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.