Unrealistic-Opinion
0x4fb3cea62b2e0d9218b5480bfa66f7ec07c8a39b
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$25.21
Total PnL
$-35.05
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
17 shares @ 29.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.91
$4.91
- YES
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
6 shares @ 72.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$4.35
$-0.12
- YES
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
14 shares @ 40.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.62
$-2.89
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
6 shares @ 46.5¢·now 37.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$2.38
$-0.62
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
52 shares @ 4.1¢·now 3.1¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.62
$-0.52
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
9 shares @ 23.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
24 shares @ 4.2¢·now 4.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.83
$-0.17
- NO
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 41.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.62
$-4.38
- NO
Will Dell say "PowerStore" during earnings call?
14 shares @ 7.3¢·now 4.5¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.62
$-0.38
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?$4.52May 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dell say "PowerStore" during earnings call?$1.04May 28, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$3.08May 28, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05May 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.05May 28, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.50May 27, 13:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.67May 27, 13:43 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$7.57May 27, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$6.89May 26, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?$6.85May 25, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?$4.66May 13, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?$5.05May 13, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$10.10May 12, 11:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump visit China by May 31?$13.82May 12, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$0.47May 10, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$5.56May 8, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?$5.02May 7, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$4.49May 7, 00:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?$0.55May 3, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$4.33Apr 27, 23:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $3.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 23:13 UTC
- Last active
- May 28, 14:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".